Friday, January 2, 2015

The FBS playoffs do their job!

After years of stalling, the NCAA was dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century this year.  For the first time ever, what used to be called division I of NCAA football will have its championship determined by a playoff instead of an opinion poll.  For years major college football was the only college athletic endeavor that was not decided on the field by a playoff system.  Given how successful the basketball tournament has become, you wonder why it took them so long.

And right out of the shoot the playoff system has changed who will be the national champion.  In any past year the early-January championship game would have been between Florida State University and Alabama.  

Why?  Because the folks surveyed (eventually augmented by computers, but computers programmed by humans so pretty much the same thing) to determine the teams playing for the championship would have definitely included FSU, as the reigning national champion who went undefeated.  Going undefeated is the Holy Grail of college football, even if it means playing a schedule composed of high school girls’ teams.  They beat only one team ranked in the top ten, a Notre Dame team that was #5 at the time but ended the season unranked.  FSU had a great deal of difficulty beating mediocre teams, and didn't beat them by a wide margin, but they finished 13-0 so they would have received an invitation to the championship game.

And Alabama? They would have been invited based on reputation, plus being the one-loss team with the least embarrassing loss.  Frankly, I consider them beating Arkansas by a point a de facto loss, but the standings say they were 10-1 and won the SEC title, so they would have been invited to the championship game.  Oregon and Ohio State would have been relegated to some lesser bowl game like the Iguana Bowl or the Ducalax Laxative Bowl. 

But a funny thing happened in the first FBS Playoff semi-final games.  Both FSU and Alabama lost.  FSU was routed decisively by Oregon, and Alabama was embarrassed by Ohio State’s third string quarterback.  So the championship game will feature two teams that wouldn't be there but for the new playoff system.

This is the way it should be, with outcomes decided on the field and not based on popularity.  Well, the rankings are still based on the opinions of a bunch of “experts” but it is as close as you can get.  Unlike pro sports, college teams can control their schedules, and with a single defeat often derailing an entire season lately schools have been stocking their schedules with more and more cupcakes.  This also leads to coaches running up the scores against weak opponents to appear to be better than they actually are.

The four team playoff system has done its job admirably.  The two pretenders to the throne have been shown to be posers, and the two better teams will determine the victor on the field of play.

This does not mean that if a four team playoff is a good idea, then an eight team playoff would be better. I am sick of people arguing that because of a dispute over who should be #4 or #5 or #6, we need another round.  First of all, it is a slippery slope; if you expand to eight teams because of the dispute over #4, then you need to expand to sixteen to avoid disputes over who is #8, and so on until you have a 64 team playoff just like basketball (oh wait, basketball is 68 teams).

Secondly, there has never been any credible claim that a team ranked lower than #4 ever had a legitimate shot at the season-ending #1 ranking.  Someone can do the research, but I’m will to bet that if you go back 25 years you will never find a #5 ranked team receiving more than a handful of votes for #1.  I’m not saying that some #5 teams might not have had a punchers chance to win a game against the ultimate #1, but it wouldn't happen often enough to justify keeping a bunch of football players out of class for another week.


After all, these kids are students who have classes to attend.  Yeah, right.

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