I thought Belichick’s initial response to the Deflate-gate allegations was moderately persuasive, in that he flatly denied any involvement. With Spygate, and other incidents, his MO was to admit the act but claim some legal justification. For example, in Spygate he knew taping the opponent’s signals was against the rules, but he said he thought they could be used for future reference (ok, this excuse is absurd as the rule clearly specifies that NO taping shall take place, but he is quibbling and not denying).
But his recent press conference severely strained credibility. First of all, his position is that he asked everyone who handled equipment for the Patriots if they deflated the footballs and they all said no, so case close everyone is exonerated. Come on, is some equipment manager underling going to fess up that the team faces a possible $500,000 fine and loss of a draft pick because he let some air out of some balls?
Next, he claimed (apparently after getting a graduate degree in atmospheric science in two days) that it is possible that the loss of air pressure was caused by “atmospheric conditions.” First off, the conditions for such a drop in pressure would be that the balls were inflated in a sauna and left there until game time, when they were suddenly put in sub-40 degree weather. Second, he does not explain how these atmospheric conditions affected 11 of 12 Patriot balls but 0 of 12 Colts balls.
Side note: the NFL rule says the balls have to be inflated to a PSI between 12.5 PSI and 13.5 PSI, but the NFL states that the initial pressure was 12.5. Why at the very bottom of the range? Wouldn't it make more sense to inflate to the middle of the range, 13 PSI, to allow for some droppage if the weather is cold? Once again, the NFL system of handling pre-game footballs is insane.
The real corker was his assertion that not only do the Patriots not cheat, but they have a culture of clearly playing within the broad lines of the rules. This is a bald face lie. I've heard several people on ESPN accuse the Pats of having a “culture of cheating” but I think it is more accurate to say they have a culture of bending the rules as far as possible. They are deliberately vague on mandated injury reports; they answer questions at mandated press conferences with “on to [insert next game site];” they use formations so complicated that the opposing coach had to have their legality explained to him.
Belichick said that since no one in the Patriots’ organization confessed it was now up to the NFL to prove someone on the Pats cheated. They did that when they tested the balls and 11 of 12 came up under-inflated. The balls were in the possession of the Pats, so who else could have done it? Someone from the Colts hoping to get the game forfeited? A weird atmospheric vortex that affected the Patriot's equipment room but not the Colts?
Tom Brady said he had his feelings hurt by the investigation. I feel really bad about this. I hope he took his hurt feelings back to his mansion and asked his multi-millionaire supermodel wife to comfort him while he cried.
All things being equal, I’d have made the Seahawks 1 point favorites; with the added distraction of Deflate-gate I’d now say they were 2.5 point favorites. Of course that’s not where the real action is in Vegas according to ESPN:
“In addition to the Patriots, the under and "heads" were popular bets in Vegas.
Stoneback said professional players at the MGM placed four limit bets on the under, when it was at 49.5.
The total was sitting at 48 at most shops as of Monday. Stoneback said pros had taken the under in the first, second and fourth quarters.
In Super Bowl coin-flip betting at the SuperBook, Sherman said there was four times more money on "heads" than "tails."”
Would I place a bet on heads? I’d flip a coin first.
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