Tua and the draft

There has been one (okay, more than one) unfortunate byproduct of the COVID-19 situation; it has made ESPN even more hyper-focused than usual. They always fixated on certain stories (where is Tom Brady going?  Who will be the first pick in the draft?) but with so many fewer sports stories out there, they now analyze the ones they have to death.

The biggest topic currently is the NFL draft, and the biggest substory is the question of who will pick Tua Tagovaiola, the “oft-injured” quarterback who led Alabama to a national championship.  He was considered a potential number one pick, but a hip injury (that followed two ankle injuries and a finger injury) have made his draft prospects dicey.

I’ve said before that I dispute the contention that Tua is injury prone.  His injuries have not indicated a defective body part, like a bad knee or repeated back issues. As Tua himself pointed out, he plays a game that is very physical and sometimes injures will happen to the healthiest of people.  Drew Brees missed part of last year with a hand injury; is he injury prone?

But the way the question is always phrased is that is it too “risky” to take Tua with a high draft pick?  But the question obscures an important point; saying it is too risky to select Tua implies that drafting Jordan Love or Justin Herbert is a sure thing.  Here are some other names that were sure things: Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Tim Tebow, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Vince Young, Jim Druckenmiller, Todd Marinovich and Jamarcus Russell.  That is only a partial list.  The fact is picking ANY quarterback in the draft is risky; Tua’s hip injury hardly makes him that much riskier.

Let’s look at a recent draft.  In 2017 the Bears could have taken Lamar Jackson or Pat Mahomes with their #3 pick, but both of those QBs were unconventional and therefore “risky.”  They went with a sure thing and traded up to #2 to select Mitch Trubisky. How does that risk aversion look now, after Mahomes and Jackson are the last two MVPs and Trubisky is fighting Nick Foles for his job in Chicago?

If you look at a list of quarterback draft busts, you should notice something—most of them were big with “tangibles.”  Jeff George and Ryan Leaf both had a cannon for an arm, Marinovich and Druckenmller were physical gods.  Who lacked these “tangibles”?  Tom Brady, drafted #199 in 1999.  Aaron Rodgers, who slid nearly out of the first round.  Doug Flutie, who was too small to be a quarterback in the NFL, then excelled in the Canadian Football League before finally getting a chance in the NFL and exhibiting heroics.  If you want to argue that picking the QB with the strongest arm is better than picking someone with a “weak” arm who has a history of success despite his shortcomings, be my guest.  Just look at the footage of Tom Brady at the draft combine and tell me you have to be a physical specimen to play in the NFL.

Another thing to consider is that quarterbacks in the NFL are protected better than college quarterbacks.  If a lineman looks at a QB funny, they will throw a roughing the passer flag in the NFL; college QBs do not have the same luxury.  In both college and the pros, injuries are subject to happenstance, but they are less prevalent in the pros.  Most of the players with long consecutive game playing streaks are quarterbacks.

And no one is suggesting Drew Bledsoe was injury prone when he took a vicious hit that allowed Tom Brady to start his career.

If I were a GM, I would try as hard as possible to put Tua’s injury history out of my mind and evaluate him based on his college performance.  Some say that if you draft Tua and he gets injured, you would lose your job; true, but no one is a GM forever.  You might as well get fired over picking a transcendent talent who might just be available because those picking ahead of you are irrationally risk averse.

You could also get fired for picking Jordan Love and watch him stink it up while Tua goes to Pro Bowl after Pro Bowl and winds up in the Hall of Fame.  Which is riskier, Tua’s injury history, or his talent level?  If the talent is there, you can last a long time as a QB in the NFL.

If the talent isn’t there . . . well, now there isn’t an XFL to go to.