Whither Tom Brady?

Waking up every morning and turning on the ESPN morning show Get Up is like going back in time to when the funniest bit on Saturday Night Live was Chevy Chase’s running gag, “Our top story tonight: Francisco Franco is still dead.”  Of course, I realize that for many of you this raises questions like, “Who is Francisco Franco,” or “Who is Chevy Chase?”  I assume you are familiar with Saturday Night Live.

What I mean is that every morning they talking heads talk about the same thing: “What team will immediately become the favorites to win the next Super Bowl by acquiring Tom Brady as their quarterback?”  There is a narrow window for teams to be considered eligible for Brady Roulette, as they have to be good enough to be able to make the vault to championship status by adding a quarterback, but at the same time desperate enough to take a flyer on a 43 year-old quarterback who is unlikely to get any better.

The stupidest hypothesis is the idea that an ideal landing spot for Brady would be the San Francisco 49ers.  Right, the reigning NFC champions lost in the Super Bowl, so they should discard their young QB who led them to the Super Bowl and could plausibly get back there any time during the next decade, blow up the team, and bring in a 43-year-old who lost in the first round of the playoffs last year.  The 49ers have a QB who last year outlasted Brees, Cousins, and Rogers, and they should give him up because he narrowly lost a game to Patrick Mahomes?  A game that was lost, not because of poor QB play, but because his coach reverted to form and kept passing when he had a large lead in a Super Bowl, a mistake he had made only two years earlier when he was the Offensive Coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons. 

This reminds me of the Seinfeld episodes where low-level Yankee employee George Costanza would create ludicrous trade scenarios that would have the Yankees giving up prospects for a team comprised solely of future Hall of Famers.  Jimmy Garappolo is the 49ers future, and anyone on that team entertaining the idea of acquiring Tom Brady for one second should be consigned to an eternity of being the GM of the Cleveland Browns.

But what about the more plausible landing spots for Brady?  The Titans, the Bucaneers, the Raiders, the Chargers?  Here is the problem—Brady wants to win a Super Bowl and will only go to a contender, a team with a solid offensive line, a strong running game, and an elite receiving corps.  Of course, any team with all that hardly needs Brady; the Titans had all that and got to the AFC Championship game last year with a journeyman QB.  But the team has to be loaded with talent.

But what was Brady’s biggest talent?  The ability to make mediocre players around him better.  How many no-name receivers got to a Pro Bowl after a season with the Patriots?  How many no-name running backs were among the league leaders in yardage after taking handoffs from Tom Brady?  Tom Brady’s biggest gift was the ability to elevate those around him.

But now, if a 43-year-old Brady can only succeed with an Antonio Brown or A.J. Green to throw to, if he needs an established Pro Bowl running back like Derrick Henry to make his play-action passes effective, then he is useless.  Save your money and get a journeyman QB like Ryan Tannehill, or Andy Dalton, or Marcus Marriota.  They are just as likely to succeed with all those weapons around them as a 43-year-old quarterback who has only succeeded when coached by possibly the greatest coach in NFL history (apologies to Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, and Bill Walsh).

Last season the Dallas Cowboys had a great quarterback, great running back, great receiver, and a great offensive line, and they STILL failed to make the playoffs.  No one can guarantee that they will take their team to the Super Bowl and win next year.  Some people thought the Browns had the Super Bowl locked up last year; how’d that work out?  There are no guarantees; that’s why there is gambling.

If you define winning a Super Bowl as “success,” then last season Drew Brees, Aaron Rogers, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Deshawn Watson, and Lamar Jackson were all failures.  Oh, and add to that list the name Tom Brady.  If Tom Brady can’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs in Bill Belichick’s system, then how can he succeed anywhere else?

I have not cared about an athlete’s choice of team less since Lebron James made “The Decision.”  I will just be thrilled when the matter is resolved, and ESPN can start reporting on facts instead of rampant speculation based on fantasy.