Djokovic--what's his ceiling?

Novak Djokovic won the Aussie Open.  This should not come as a surprise as he has won eight of them and is undefeated in Aussie Open finals.  But the important question now is how many more majors will he win?

The two biggest impediments to Joker winning majors are named Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, but who knows how much longer Federer can keep playing.  He is 7 years older than Djokovic, 38 vs. 31, and while he got to the semis at the Aussie Open he had to fend off two unprepossessing challengers (one with the improbable first name of “Tennys”) who had match points against him but failed to convert.  An injury contributed to his losing to Joker in the semi-final, and the older you are the harder it is to bounce back.  People have been writing him off prematurely for some time but, at some point soon, he’s going to stop making it to the second round of majors.

Nadal is only one year older than Djokovic but plays a grinding style of tennis that has already sidelined him for months at a time.  Nadal’s early exit from the Aussie semi-final thanks to Dominic Thiem could be a harbinger (I would also note that while Nadal did defeat Nick Kyrios, he lost a set and won two tiebreakers, meaning Kyrios was four points from winning the match). Nadal could frankly win the next five French Opens, but his success on other surfaces going forward might be limited.

There aren’t a lot of other challengers to Joker.  Thiem pushed him in the AO final but still lost.  Murray retired after to hip surgery, and a comeback would be implausible.  Stan Warwinka is still dangerous, but also getting up in age.  None of the other young guns (Medvedev, Kyrios, Ronic) have shown much capacity to beat any of the Big Three.

So, will Joker get to 20 Majors and catch Roger Federer?  I think, barring a catastrophic injury, that is small potatoes.  Nadal is currently at 19 majors and should tie Roger if he wins the next French Open (if there is anything in the world I would bet on, it would be Nadal winning at the French Open).  He is likely to nose ahead of Federer; Djokovic should blow by him by a mile.

Djokovic won 2 major titles in 2018, 2 in 2017, zero in 2016 (but missed the US Open), and 3 in 2015.  He also won three majors in 2011.  I think, barring injury, that Joker could win 2-3 more majors per year for 3-4 years.  The upper bound of that is 12 additional majors, which would give him 29.  30 majors could not be described as preposterous. 

I think Roger Federer is the Greatest Of All Time, but can I make that argument once Djokovic is at 22?  25?  30?  It would be difficult.  Djokovic had the good fortune of being born 7 years after Roger Federer, so Roger was probably on the decline during the prime of Novak’s career.  I believe peak Roger would beat peak Novak but, unlike with baseball teams, I am not aware of any computer simulation software that could do a mockup of such a hypothetical meeting. 

When Pete Sampras retired in 2003 with 14 major titles, then a record for the Open Era, people thought it would last for a while.  It took less than 20 years (16, to be exact) for not one, not two, but three players to blow by him, and two of them are still likely to add more majors to their totals.

Maybe that’s how Federer feels now, with Nadal one major away from tying him and Djokovic three away.  In 2004-2007 he won 11 of the 16 majors, a pace that would get him to 30 quickly had it not been for the emergence of Nadal and the Joker.  A lot of things could happen that keeps Nadal or Djokovic from passing Federer; injuries often happen to older players, especially when they go late into tournaments and play younger, fitter players. 

But I’d bet that Nadal gets to 21 and Djokovic to . . . let’s say 25, just to be conservative.  And I would still say Roger Federer is the GOAT, unless you want to make an argument for Rod Laver.