Is Dave Roberts the worst manager in post season history?

Is Dave Roberts the worst manager in post-season history?

The answer to the headline is yes, Dave Roberts is the worst manager in baseball post-season history.  I’m not even sure who is in second place.  He over-managed the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series and lost a winnable series.  In 2018 he pulled starter Rich Hill even though he was throwing a one-hitter after 6 innings.  And now in 2019 he blows Game 5 of the NLDS by leaving in Clayton Kershaw despite having a rested bullpen who had been effective all year.

I think there are two reasons for the decision to leave Kershaw in the game.  The first is the idea that he burnishes his reputation as a manager by making unconventional moves.  Anyone can go to the 8^th inning specialist in the 8^th inning of a baseball game, but only an innovative manager would leave in a starter, even if he has declining skills and has been used as a starter recently. 

Secondly, I think he was hoping to create a narrative that would burnish Kershaw’s Hall of Fame credentials.  Kershaw gets called “The greatest pitcher of his generation” a lot, but his post-season record is 9-11 with a 4.43 ERA.  Roberts wanted to give Kershaw the same chance that the San Francisco Giants gave Madison Bumgardner in 2014 when he came in to relieve on short rest to clinch the Giants’ victory.

But there are a couple of differences.  One, MadBum was 24 at the time, not 31.  Kershaw has been seen as in decline, and while still effective he isn’t usually mentioned in the Cy Young debate.  Maybe at one time he was “lights out” but not anymore.  Also, as a starter, in 2019 Kershaw’s ERA in his first inning was 5.97, so he was used to getting off to a slow start.  As a starter that’s forgivable if you subsequently get on track; as a reliever, having a bad first inning is disastrous.  Relievers have to come into a game and hit the ground running; this is another reason why Kershaw is not a reliever.

Second, the Dodgers had better options.  The 2014 Giants didn’t have a strong bullpen, but the 2019 Dodgers did.  It wasn’t great, but it was good.  But instead of going to Kenley Jansen or Pedro Baez or Joe Kelly in the 8^th, they went with Kershaw.   I call that a vote of no confidence in the bullpen.

I think the experience with Bumgardner in 2014 started an unfortunate trend.  The next year Matt Harvey of the Mets insisted on pitching in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the World Series even though he had never thrown a complete game in his life, and he promptly blew the game and the Royals won the title.  Then you have the Dodgers not using their bullpen properly in 2017 and 2018.  I suspect something happened in 2016 but I am too lazy to look it up.

Bottom line—World series managers, please stop looking for excuses to use starters as relievers on short rest.  Once in a while it works, but that’s not the way to bet.  Before the series began, the Dodgers had a 62% of winning; after using Clayton Kershaw in relief, the chances were zero.