2018 Early Oscar predictions!

2018 Oscar predications

I love predicting who will win at the Oscars.  Partly it’s because it is a black box—we know the results that come out, but we can only speculate on the process voters used to arrive at those conclusions.  And then there is the fact that the conclusion is an aggregate vote, meaning that we are ascribing a hive mind concept to what is, in fact, a few thousand people all with their own agendas.  Who deserves to win isn’t irrelevant, but usually the differences are so small they can be ignored and the decision comes down to “Who will the Academy like more?”

It has gotten more complicated since the Academy adopted the expanded roster of Best Picture Nominees.  It used to be that picture and director won in lock step, but since they started nominating up to ten films it hasn’t happened once.  Best Director tends to go to the most visually/technically impressive film (e.g. La La Land) and Best Picture to a more human-oriented film (e.g. Moonlight).  It also makes it more confusing in that the expansion of the Best Picture nominees was intended to get more Hollywood blockbusters nominated, but the effect has been to get even more small indie film nominated.

Best Picture:  A tough category to parse.  No major blockbuster (sorry, Wonder Woman).  A coming-of-age indie film (Call Me By Your Name), a low budget horror film (Get Out), an indie-fave comedy (Lady Bird), two old-fashioned war epics (Dunkirk, Darkest Hour), an indie fave drama (Three Billboards), a Spielberg film (The Post), a film from respected artsy director Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) and a love story with the Creature from the Black Lagoon (The Shape of Water).  I think it boils down to Dunkirk and Three Billboards; the latter has been doing better at the Globes and SAG awards, but didn’t get a Director nomination.  On the other hand, I suspect Dunkirk appeals to an older demographic, and the Academy is, on average, old.  I am picking Three Billboards—confidence level 40%, with Dunkirk at 35% (Shape of Water 24%).  If there is another split between Picture/Director then Christopher Nolan will win Best Director and Three Billboards will win Best Picture; see the discussion of Best Original Screenplay below.

Best Actor:  Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour.  The Academy LOVES actors playing famous people (for Pete’s sake, Jaime Foxx won for a Ray Charles impersonation).  Timothee Chalamet is too young, Daniel Day-Lewis and Denzel Washington have already have multiple Oscars, and who the heck is Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)?  Oldman is a prior nominee for Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy and is a generally respected thespian with a distinguished career.  The only hiccup is recent allegations of sexual harassment, but with the lack of a strong alternative I think this is a virtual lock.  Confidence level 90%.

Best Actress: Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird.  A very strong field.  Margot Robbie has the “impersonating famous person” factor, as well as the Charlize Theron “gorgeous woman getting unattractive” factor, but she has the lightest resume in the field.  Meryl Streep is, of course, Meryl Streep, but her recent win for The Iron Lady takes out the “hasn’t won in a while” factor.  Sally Hawkins plays a mute in The Shape of Water, which hits the “character with a disability” factor, but she’s gotten surprisingly little buzz.  The Academy likes Frances McDormand, but she already has an Oscar, while this is Ronan’s third nomination so she’s due (?).  Also, Lady Bird was a star vehicle designed for Ronan’s strengths as an actress.  Confidence level 60%; I think I am underestimating McDormand’s appeal with the voters.

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya.  She’s gotten just about all the pre-Oscar awards, she is a fabulous actress with a ton of Emmys but no Oscar.  I would love to see Laurie Metcalf win for Lady Bird, but since I think Ronan will win Best Actress that means there will be no vote for Metcalf as a Lady Bird consolation prize.  Confidence level  99.99%.

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards.  I am tempted to go with Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World, both because he is a great actor and for the story of how they re-shot the film for him to replace Kevin Spacey.  But he won in 2012 for Beginners, and the Academy likes to share the wealth.  Richard Jenkins is a former Oscar nominee and might get votes if The Shape of Water looks to get shut out of the other categories, but that’s iffy.  Woody Harrelson will lose votes to his co-star Rockwell, and no one saw Willem DaFoe in The Florida Project.  Rockwell won the Globes and SAG, so this will make it a sweep.  Confidence level—85%.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk.  Jordan Peele (Get Out) and Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) are both first time nominees, and with a horror film and a comedy, so they’re out.  Paul Thomas Anderson is respected, but does artsy films without broad appeal (on the other hand, this is his eighth nomination without a win so he is overdue).  Guillermo Del Toro is very respected, but mostly as a visual artist creating bizarre creatures like in Pan’s Labyrinth.  Christopher Nolan is respected even though much of his work has been in genres, and Dunkirk (despite its odd structure) is an old-fashioned World War II film.  Someone else winning the Director’s Guild Award would change my mind, but for now I’ll pick Nolan.  Confidence level—70%.

Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name.  Ivory is Hollywood royalty for all of the Merchant/Ivory films (he has three director Oscar nominations, this is his first for writing), and this is probably the biggest indie hit of the year.  Confidence level 79%.

Original Screenplay:  Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards.  Here’s where the Best Picture outcome gets interesting—Best Picture almost always wins best screenplay, but Dunkirk has very little dialog and isn’t nominated (nor does it have any acting nominations).  Greta Gerwig will get support for Lady Bird, and those who don’t support The Shape of Water for Best Picture or Director might vote for Guillermo del Toro here as a consolation prize, but since Three Billboards has a good chance for Best Picture, I favor it to win Best Screenplay.  Confidence level—74%.