Optimism is a bad way to go

One of the more amusing (or disturbing, depending on your perspective) images on ESPN several weeks ago was cell phone footage of one of their New York based personalities going ballistic when he learned that the New York Knicks did not get the first pick in the draft, thus losing out on drafting future superstar Zion Williamson.  What were the odds that the Knicks, who had the worst record in the NBA last season, wouldn’t get the first pick?  Astronomical, right?

Well, we know the answer: 86%.  Because of the bizarre use of ping pong balls to determine draft order instead of teams’ records, the team with the worst record does not get the first choice in the draft; in fact, it is unlikely that they get the first pick.  This supposedly deters teams from tanking in order to improve their draft chances (the efficacy of this tactic is certainly debatable).  Knick fans were sure that they would get the first pick in the draft.  But in reality, the chances that the Knicks would get the first pick were only 14%.

Move ahead to the NBA finals, a battle between Goliath Golden State Warriors and Lilliputian Toronto Raptors.  Warriors’ superstar Kevin Durant had been out for a month with a lower leg injury, but with the series in the Raptors’ favor by 3-1, Durant was ready to come back and lead Golden State to another title.  The medical staff of the Warriors said that Durant re-injuring his leg was “impossible.”

Those medical personnel might want to buy some lottery tickets, as the impossible happened and Durant tore his Achilles tendon.  This not only took him out for the rest of the season, but also for most, if not all, of next season.

What were the odds of such a disaster?  Unlike the ping pong balls, we can’t put an exact number of the probability, but judging from the medical staff’s prognosis the answer should be “very small.”  I would argue that despite the medical staff’s assurances, the chances of an Achilles injury would never be zero for a basketball player playing in an NBA game.

In both instances, something perceived to be an unlikely event by fans turned out to be a very, very likely event in retrospect.  Both the Knicks and the Warriors fell victim to an age-old curse that befalls of fans of a professional sports team; they were far too optimistic about something that was actually very unlikely, or very likely to occur.

The old adage is that in spring training every baseball fan thinks his or her team will make it to the World Series, no matter how bad they were the season before.  That journeyman pitcher you acquired as a “player to be named later” will win 20 games; that kid shortstop who’s been bouncing between AA and AAA for 10 years will be Rookie of the Year; that manager with the lifetime sub-.500 record will turn into George S. Patton overnight.  

I seem to recall Bill James writing in the late 80’s about how fans think a single player will improve a team’s win total by 10 or 12 (or more) when in fact a superstar barely moves the needle more than a couple of wins.  In his best seasons Mike Trout (who has been so consistently phenomenal that we have stopped talking about how he is the greatest player of all time) is worth maybe 10 wins to the Angels, but no one else is even close to that.

In sports, all fans are optimists.  I heard one wag on ESPN say that if Lebron James hadn’t gotten hurt, the Lakers would have made the playoffs as an eight seed, beaten the Warriors in the first round, and then gone on to the NBA finals.  Way to bootstrap a team that lost 55% of their games during the regular season and that hasn’t been to the playoffs in six years.

People say I am a pessimist, but I am a realist.  Not that I resist the pessimist imprimatur.  Studies have shown that pessimists are more well-adjusted, cope with loss better, have a more realistic assessment of their circumstances, and are overall better at dealing with reality than optimists.  Pessimists are better at preparing for stressful events because they anticipate everything that might go wrong.

What could go wrong?  Your best player could blow out his Achilles in an important game.  Your team might lose a lottery it had a 14% chance of winning.  You might not pay off your debts by buying a lottery ticket. 

My favorite sports quote is attributed to Damon Runyon, who said, “Remember my son, the race is not always to the swiftest, nor the battle to the strongest, but that the way to bet.” 

There is a reason why Han Solo never wants to know the odds; they’re always right.