Bryce Harper's contract

Can Bryce Harper do math?

Our long national nightmare is over—Bryce Harper has signed a contract!  But the terms of the deal reinforce the idea I mentioned in my previous post that the problem was more with Harper and less a conspiracy among owners.

The contract Harper signed was for $330 million over 13 years with the Phillies, with no opt out clause and a no trade clause.  A lot of talking heads on ESPN stressed that Harper controls his career, that he clearly wanted stability, and now he can proceed like the second-best player in the majors that he is (according to Tony Kornheiser).

First off, as I said before, Harper is good, but he is hardly the second-best player in the MLB today.  Five active players had a higher career WAR by age 25: Mike Trout, Albert Puljos, Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, and Jason Heyward.  Among all players in career WAR Harper ranks 951 with 27.4, just behind former teammate Gio Gonzales who has 27.5.  Nolan Arenado, who just signed a long-term deal with the Rockies, is at 714 with 33.3 (although it is just possible his numbers are helped by playing a mile above sea level).  In seven seasons he made the top ten only twice for home runs, RBIs, OPS, OPS+, and slugging percent, and he’s won only one Silver Slugger award.  He has a tremendous ceiling but is bothered by injuries and mediocre seasons.

After he signed it came out that he had been offered a four-year, $180 million contract by the Dodgers, which he turned down.   So, he was offered $45 million per year and the ability to renegotiate at that time but turned it down for $25.4 million per year.  Maybe Bryce Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, didn’t explain to him that $45 million is more than $25.4.

Maybe those nagging injuries were worrisome to Harper and he wanted a long-term guaranteed deal.  But $20 million a year less?  I suspect that Harper’s ego demanded a bigger deal than Machado’s $300 million deal with San Diego, so Harper opted for a lower per-season total in order to get the headline “Largest deal in baseball history.”

In 5 years, Harper’s salary will be tradable to a team like the Yankees, so Harper can live his childhood dream of playing in pinstripes.  But he will never hold the title of largest single season salary; that will likely go to Mike Trout, whose numbers make Harper look like a weak AAA prospect.  Or maybe with Harper making so little, the Phillies can afford to pay Trout when he becomes a free agent and combine the two in the outfield.  As impressive as that might be, it may not be enough for a World Series without some pitching.

The early like is that Harper is favored to win the NL MVP in his first season with Philadelphia.  I’d love to place a bet on the field.  There is always the injury issue, and even with a history of good batting stats in the Phillies’ ballpark I’d still like to wager on Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Kris Bryant (Cubs), or about a half dozen players on the Dodgers.  Manny Machado makes more sense if you are looking for a narrative of a savior arriving and delivering a long-suffering franchise into the playoffs.

So cheer now Phillies fan, and get ready to boo Harper when he’s earning $25 million for hitting .230 in 2028.