Bryce Harper: Why the hype?

Back in the 1970’s, catcher Johnny Bench hit 45 home runs in 1970; the next season he hit 27.  When a reporter asked him why he had such a down year, Bench said that maybe 27 was typical and 45 had been the aberration. 

Who knew Johnny Bench was a natural statistician?

I bring this up because of all the hype over the signing (or not signing) of Bryce Harper.  He turned down $300 million over 10 years from the Nationals, figures that Manny Machado found acceptable (Machado’s stats are far better than Harpers, with a lifetime War of 33.8 compared to Harper’s 27.4; check out this indirect comparison). People point to Harper winning Rookie of the Year in 2012, then following it up with an MVP season in 2015.  In 2015 he had a WAR of 10 and an OPS+ of 198, which means he was twice as good as the average MLB player.

But 2015 may not be a typical Bryce Harper year.  In 2014, 2016 and 2018 he had WARs of 1.1, 1.5, and 1.3 respectively, which . . . is not great. His average WAR over seven seasons is 3.9 (27.4 divided by 7) which is . . . good.  His overall OPS+ is 139, meaning he is about 40 percent better than an average player.  According to his Similarity Scores at Baseball Reference, only three of the ten most similar players is in the Hall of Fame (but Mike Trout is probably a lock for future induction and Miguel Cabrera will get a lot of support).  His 2019 projections from Baseball reference is a batting average of .265 with 27 home runs, which again is . . . nice.

He is also a defensive liability, with a defensive War of -3.0 over his career.  He’s been in the top 10 of outfield errors committed three times.  He’s only been in the top 10 of home runs twice.  He’s only been in the top 10 of OPS twice.  He’s been in the top 10 of runs batted in twice.  Bottom line—he’s had two good seasons in seven years.

But more than $300 million over a decade?  I wouldn’t take that chance until he put together two great years in a row, which he hasn’t.  In three of the past five seasons he’s had a WAR under 2; I’d look at that as more likely being typical and 2015 as the aberration. His supporters will point out that his low War in 2014 was due to playing in only 100 games (and that he put up impressive War numbers in other injury-shortened seasons), but that just highlights his history of injuries.  He’s often gotten injured by hustling a little too much on occasion; maybe Manny Machado is on to something when he says husting “isn’t his cup of tea.”

Harper is a player with a high ceiling, but a history of injuries and a history of mediocre seasons.  Someone will probably pay him what he thinks he’s worth, because all it takes is one fool to screw up the market.  But I wouldn’t write whatever team pays him into the playoffs.