Mis-managing relief pitchers

I’ve watched a lot of baseball in my life, and I’ve heard a lot of announcers say a lot of stupid things.  But by far the topper was uttered during the 7^th game of the NLCS between the Dodgers and the Brewers, when one f the announcers (I can’t recall which) said, “The Dodgers have only scored four runs off Brewer starters in this series.”

Normally that would not be an insanely stupid concept but given how Brewers manager Craig Counsell was using his pitching staff, it provoked a loud guffaw from me.  Counsell, showing that he had zero faith in his rotation, was pulling his starting pitchers before the Dodgers had any chance to score off them. His game one starter, Gio Gonzales, was pulled after two innings and eight batters.  His game four starter, Gonzales again, was pulled after one inning and seven batters.  He yanked his game five starter, Wade Miley, after he failed to get the first batter out.  The Brewer starters faced, on average, 12.67 batters during the first six NCLS games.  No wonder the Dodgers weren’t scoring on them.

I don’t want to come down too hard on Counsell’s handling of his pitching staff, although I do believe it cost his team a trip to the World Series.  The Brewers were the winningest team in the National League, and part of that was a starting rotation that allowed the 8^th fewest runs per game, 4.04, a figure only slightly behind the Red Sox’s 3.99.  So the Brewers had a quality starting rotation.  But despite this Counsell felt the need to resort to gimmicks like pulling Gonzales after two innings in Game 1 for no reason and pulling Miley after pitching to one batter in Game 5.

The deal with Game 5, trying to get the Dodgers to platoon one way and then flip the pitcher, has been tried before, as mentioned in this article at ESPN on "bullpenning."  It’s not entirely insane, but it does betray a lack of confidence in your pitching corps.  Yes, the playoffs are different than the regular season, but the post-season is hardly the time to start experimenting like you are playing a game of Strat-O-Matic in your parent’s basement.

In seems like in the past few seasons mangers have gone relief happy in the post season.  Dave Roberts, the Dodger manager, was too eager to pull the hook in the 2017 World Series and possibly cost the Dodgers the crown.  Even Joe Maddon, for my money the best manager alive today, nearly cost the Cubs the title in 2016 by over-using Aroldis Chapman against the Cleveland Indians in the World Series.  I get the temptation; you have a lights-out closer who is effective for one inning; it’s the end of the season, so let’s get two innings out of him.  Instead of waiting until the ninth, let’s put him in in the 7^th.   There are three reason why this may not work.

The first is that baseball players are successful if they do what they are accustomed to doing.  If a relief pitcher is used to facing three batters in the ninth and recording a save, then it might upset his equilibrium if he is asked to pitch for two innings.  The Dodgers brought closer Kenley Jansen in for the ninth inning against the Rockies in the 163^rd game for the NL West title with a 5-run lead, and he gave up two home runs; was that because he was unaccustomed to such a large lead and couldn’t focus as well as he usually did?

Secondly, relief pitchers are effective because they are seen so rarely.  If Josh Hader is effective pitching to three batters a night, then no one on the other team gets a good look at his motion.  But if he goes two innings a couple of times during a short series, then the other team can pick up on any vulnerability that might be there.  Familiarity breeds contempt and, in this case, it may breed extra base hits.

Lastly, there is the psychological factor.  If you have Josh Hader in the bullpen, the other team knows it is an 8-inning game.  The prospect of facing a lights-out closer in the ninth adds urgency to a team’s need to score runs, which might make them do foolish things in early innings and take risks that needn’t be taken.

But if you bring Hader in at the third inning, you’ve lost that edge.  Suddenly it is a nine-inning game again, and there is no reason to improvidently try and take an extra base or pull a pitcher for a pinch hitter while the pitcher is on cruise control.  There may be an edge to using your closer earlier in the game than the ninth inning, but you lose something as well.

Post-season managers seem to want to drop the strategies that got them to the playoffs and start relying on their relief pitchers even if their starting pitching is one of the team’s strengths.  I’ve heard several announcers mention that managers pull starters to avoid them being seen a third time through the line-up; while it is true that, on average, pitchers are less effective when the batters are seeing them for a third time, what is true of an “average” pitcher is not necessarily true for Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw.  There is an old axiom in statistics: a man with his head in an oven and his feet in a block of ice is, on average, comfortable.  Average doesn’t apply to everyone.

So, will Dave Roberts learn from his foibles last year and manage his bullpen better in the World Series this year?  Frankly, after seeing Red Sox batters destroy the best starting rotation in baseball during the ALCS, I have a feeling Roberts may be going to his bullpen sooner in games rather than later, but out of necessity.  But we shall see; that’s why they play the games.