Roger is the GOAT; case closed

Sports media live on debate.  Did the Warriors win or did the Cavs choke (answer: Warriors won)?  Who’s better, Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera (answer: Trout, by a wide margin)?  Who would win if the 1927 Yankees played the 1998 Yankees (according to the TV show Sports Night, the 1927 Yankees would probably be distracted by all the jets flying overhead). 

Who is the greatest men’s tennis player of all time?  The answer is obviously John McEnroe.  What, that answer isn’t obvious?  What about Sampras, Borg, Federer and Nadal?  All great players, but Mac is a top ten singles player who is arguably the greatest doubles player of all time.  Mac has 77 singles titles and 78 doubles titles, a total of 155, which is a lot more titles than those other guys who eschewed doubles like Roger Federer who only has 101 singles and doubles titles.

So, let us turn to the question of who is the greatest men’s singles player of all time.  I attempted to answer this for women's tennis, but the results were difficult to interpret; Serena seems dominant, but Steffi Graf won more majors faster against better opponents, and Martina Navratilova was winning major doubles titles when she was 50.   It’s a little clearer for the men, as the game has evolved linearly and we can focus on recent champions.  Yes, maybe the answer is Rod Laver but since he played with wooden rackets he might as well have been hitting the ball with the femur of a brontosaurus.

The answer boils down to Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal.  Roger has more major titles, 19 and counting.  But Nadal enjoys a 23-14 edge in head to head match-ups, plus he had more success at a younger age.  Then he broke down and Federer, instead of gently going into that good night, resurrected himself and is now back on top at age 35.

I think the answer is Fed.  I don’t care if Nadal wins the next 5 French Opens and passes Federer with 20 majors, and I don’t care about their head-to-head.  The head-to-head is easily explained by two factors; first, Nadal is four years younger than Roger, so naturally he should have an edge as they both approach their prime and then move beyond it.  Would it have proven anything if Pete Sampras had beaten a 60 year old Rod Laver in 1998? 

Secondly, Nadal is a clay court specialist who is also kind of good on other surfaces.  His edge over Federer on clay is 13-2, so if you disregard clay his record against Federer is 10-12.

This is one time when I want to just disregard the numbers and say Roger Federer is the best because he just is.  Nadal has a crashing, bruising style of play that is effective, but destructive to his body. Federer developed a way of playing that is not only very, very effective, but keeps him from being injured.  He seems to hover a quarter inch above the court.  It is hard to play tennis well, even harder to play tennis well and avoid injuries.

Also, Federer has been able to evolve his game more than any player ever.  He came up and was number one when Nadal arrived and challenged him.  Faced with a younger rival and needed to shorten points, Federer developed a big serve, so big that he is now third all-time in career aces and got his 10,000^th ace at Wimbledon this year.

A few years went by and he realized he needed another weapon to stay on top, so he invented SABR, the Sneak Attack By Roger, where he would suddenly run up and take an opponent’s second serve as a half volley.  Since the invention of the backhand, who else has invented a new tennis technique?

But time went on and Roger’s body started to fail him.  So, he took 6 months off, and instead of rust he came back refreshed and won the Aussie Open. Then he skipped the clay court season and came to Wimbledon rested, with the result that he became the oldest winner of the event by four years, AND didn’t drop a set.

Numbers don’t begin to encompass all the reasons why Roger Federer is the greatest men’s singles player of all time.  Nadal might catch his career majors total by continuing to dominate at the French Open, but again, Nadal is the only the greatest clay court singles tennis player of all time.  When looking at the big picture (and leaving out doubles) Nadal can never really catch up with Roger for the title of Greatest Of All Time (in men’s singles).