What to expect from Tony Romo?

Reports coming out of Dallas indicate that our long national nightmare may be just about over:  Tony Romo may be released by the Dallas Cowboys to join any team NOT in the NFC East.

When the talking heads at ESPN talked about this last week, they were unanimous on one thing—Romo is as fragile as a crystal football.  He was called fragile, injury-prone, “unable to play a full season” and a lot of other words that meant that he was a strong breeze away from being on the disabled list.  Even the sportswriters who LIKED him agreed he was a buttercup.

Looking at his history, it is easy to see why people would say that; he has missed major time in several seasons.  That’s why he is expendable in Dallas—while he was recuperating from his last injury the Cowboys discovered Dak Prescott who filled in so well, he got the job permanently.

But is Romo actually “injury prone”?  Yes, he’s been injured several times, and his back has been injured more than once.  But he isn’t a running back who’s torn his ACL repeatedly, or a pitcher needing a second Tommy John surgery.  His injuries have usually been caused by very large men falling on him with considerable violence.  Under the circumstances, I wouldn’t say that makes him “prone” to anything other than being tackled.

In 2010 Romo broke his collarbone.  In 2011 his hand was injured.  In 2013 he hurt a rib, followed by a herniated disc.  In 2014 he hurt his back being tackled, and in 2015 his collarbone was broken once again.  Most of these were caused by tackles that would cause damage to any human.  The back issues seem unrelated.  Yes, his collarbone has broken twice, but I doubt the problem is a calcium deficiency. I think he just plays a violent game and is a tad less lucky than Tom Brady.

Is it reasonable to expect that Romo WOULD NOT suit up for 16 games in the 2017 season, if he gets a starting job?  First off, no QB, not even the sainted Tom Brady, is assured of starting 16 games in a season (you may recall that Tom Brady missed four games last season, for non-injury related reasons).  But Romo has as good a chance at starting 16 games as Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, or even Dak Prescott.  Second, Romo is 36 years old, and we know that people do get brittle with age, so that is a strike against him.  Third, a lot would depend upon the ability of his offensive line to a) protect the quarterback, and b) establish a running game that makes play-action passes effective.

If I was a Bronco fan and they signed him, I’d buy a plane ticket to where ever Super Bowl 2018 is being played.  If I were a 49er fan, I’d bet the Niners DOUBLED their win total from 2016 (that’s right, four wins, baby! Maybe five!). 

The downside is that Romo might get hurt, but the upside is that the perception of the downside might keep his price low.  In a league where the Bears are throwing around $15 million a year at unproven starter Mike Glennon and his career 84 passer rating, Romo’s 97 passer rating would be worth a lot more.  If people didn’t assume he’d get injured.

Football is all about risk.  Nothing is guaranteed except signing bonuses and base salaries.  At 36, Romo is a risk, but then so is any QB in the league; the younger ones just get up a little faster.  Romo says he might be willing to sign for $6-$8 million; if so that is a risk I’d want my team to take.