Women's tennis--Who Is the GOAT?

Let me start by saying I find it highly inconvenient that the expression used to designate someone as the best at their sport—Greatest Of All Time—has an acronym than is a synonym for the worst athlete of all time, goat.  The English language is funny that way.

Now that Serena Williams has done the inevitable (on her fourth attempt) and tied Steffi Graf’s record for most major titles, many have contemplated the question of who is the greatest women’s tennis player of all time?  My answer—I have no idea.

With all due respect to Helen Wills Moody, it comes down to three contenders—Serena, Steffi, and Martina Navratilova (a player so great, there is a tennis player named after her in the tennis Hall of Fame).  So, how to decide?

It would not be fair to suggest imagining the players playing each other in their primes.  If Martina in her prime were to time travel to 2014 to play Serena, her wooden racket would shatter the first time she made contact with one of Serena’s 120 MPH serves.  Have you seen film of Martina playing Chrissie Evert back in the 1970’s?  They look like two socialites politely hitting a badminton shuttlecock  back and forth to one another.

A numerical count of major wins puts it at Serena and Steffi 22, Martina 18.  But Martina lost 4 finals to Chris Evert, and 4 to Steffi starting when Martina was 31 and Steffi was 18 and ending in 1989 when they were ages 33 and 20 respectively.  Steffi’s main competition was Monica Sees, who was taken out by a crazed German tennis fan and missed the prime years of battling Steffi.  Offhand I’d say Martina faced more competition during her singles career.  Both Martina and Steffi faced harder competition that Serena has.

Serena has faced little competition during her career, other than her sister.  Unfortunately, because of the complicated nature of their sibling relationship, almost all of their matches have produced substandard tennis.  Serena’s closest competitor outside her family has been Maria Sharapova, whom she defeated 14 times in a row, so that’s not much of a competition.  How weak is women’s tennis right now?   One of the semi-finalists at Wimbledon was unseeded, and another was a 36 years old who has an auto-immune disease.  One of the women nominated for a 2016 ESPY for top female tennis player was retired.  The biggest question about Serena’s 22 major titles is what took her so long?

Which raises another point; Serena and Steffi are tied for major titles at 22, but Steff’s came in a 12-year period.  Serena has taken 17 years to tie her, meaning her ability to win as many majors is a factor of longevity (and weak competition), not peak value.  Serena has won an astonishing nine major titles after the age of 30. Steffi won her last major, the French, at age 29 a couple of months before her 30^th birthday.  So if Serena is better than Steffi, it is only because she lasted longer.

Let’s throw something else into the mix—doubles!  Steffi didn’t play a lot of doubles, although she did win a single major title in doubles at Wimbledon in 1988.  Martina is one of the greatest doubles players of all time, maybe the second best to John McEnroe.  Martina won the grand slam in both doubles and mixed doubles, to go along with her singles grand slam.  Martina also won the US Open mixed doubles at age 50.  Yes, 50.  Serena has had an impressive doubles career with her sister, winning a career grand slam, but has not won the Australian Open or the French Open in mixed doubles (but did reach the finals in both, once). 

So—Martina had the stiffest competition, but you can hardly fault Steffi for a fan attacking Monica Seles.  Steffi had the most success in a short period of time.  Serena has been the most dominant, but that’s largely because of a weak field. 

If I had to choose a tie break, I’d pick Steffi, for the simple fact that she has the Golden Slam, winning all four majors and the Olympic Gold medal in 1988.  Serena had the chance for a Golden Slam this year, but she lost the Australian and French Opens.  It’s a fluke stat (you have to win a grand slam in a year that features a Summer Olympics), but with a choice this close anything tips the balance.  How many more majors does Serena have to win to tip the balance back?  Let’s see how many more she wins.