Don't play the sucker on fantasy sports betting sites

If you had a box that contained 1,000,000 atoms of a radioactive element with a half-life of one year that decayed into lead, it would not be “gambling” to bet that in 12 months’ time the box would contain 500,000 atoms of lead.  But if you were to bet that on a given day more than 2,739 atoms would decay, that would be gambling.  It’s all in the timing.

That is the difference between being in a season long fantasy league and one of those “one day” leagues featured in those ubiquitous FanDuel and Draft Kings advertisements.  Over the course of a season, injuries aside, Bryce Harper will hit more home runs than let’s say Dee Gordon.  But on any given day Harper could go 0-4 and Gordon could get lucky twice.  Putting money down on that is silly.

I wanted to write a stinging rebuke to all those who play fantasy sports, but Charles P. Pierce already did it at Grantland.com.  Seeing all the ads for the two fantasy leviathans, I have the same reaction as when I see all the shiny buildings in Las Vegas—they didn’t build all those buildings in order to give money away.  When Draft Kings, or FanDuel, or a Nigerian prince tell you that they want to give you money, run away fast.

With that much money flowing through a largely unregulated market, it was inevitable that some scandal would break.  The current expressions of concern are over a rather obscure worry about employees at the two fantasy companies leveraging proprietary data for an advantage in betting at the other companies’ site.  The NCAA has prohibited the two companies from advertising during NCAA Championship events (no idea why they decided JUST championship events; I guess they wanted to draw a line but a pretty small one).  A Congressman has sent a letter to the two companies asking for a list of NFL personnel who participate, because heaven forbid that Jay Cutler drop back to pass and wonder how the receiver catching the ball will impact Cutler’s fantasy picks.

My main complaint about fantasy sports, aside from the ads that run more frequently than political ads the night before an election, is that they interfere with me getting scores when I check in on an NFL game Sunday afternoon.  I check the ticker at the bottom of the screen, but all I ever seem to get are the latest fantasy updates naming the current top 5 running backs.  Who won the game is now less important that whether the running back for the Carolina Panthers gained more yards than expected.

So if you dabble in one day fantasy sports leagues, thanks.  Because of you there will be a few more TV spots for Draft Kings, but there will be fewer of the even more annoying Viagara and Cialis ads.  I guess the one thing men like more than sex with gorgeous women (at least all the women in the ads are pretty hot) is pretending to be a general manager of a sports team.