As you may have heard, 49ers linebacker Chris Borland,
coming off a successful rookie season and poised for stardom, retired from the
NFL at age 24. He cited concerns about
the long term health of anyone who makes a living ramming his head against
other people’s heads while both of them wear helmets. He did a great deal of research on both
damage from concussions and something called sub-concussive hits, blows to the
head that almost, but don’t quite, cause concussions. Apparently even if you don’t get a
concussion, the damage accumulates.
So, is Borland the tip of the spear? The canary in the coal
mine? The first harbinger of athletes
turning down lucrative careers in order to not have brain damage by the time
they turn 40?
Undoubtedly. In addition,
last week saw four NFL players announce their retirement before the age of
31. Patrick Willis has foot injury
issues, Jake Locker was looking at a future holding a clipboard, and Pittsburgh’s
Jason Worilds and Oakland’s Maurice Jones-Drew had other reasons. But a new factor will no doubt be creeping in
to player’s decision making regarding their careers, and more of them are going
to opt out before permanent damage is done.
Those who point out that there are thousands of people
standing in line for Borland’s job are right, but how many of those in line
have Borland’s talent? Not really. Of
course there are lots of players who will accept any risk in exchange for the
glory and the money of a successful NFL career.
When baseball's Ken Caminiti was dying of cancer from his steroids use, he still
said he would have made the same decision to use steroids, win an MVP award,
and be famous. Not everyone will be
deterred, but some will and the median level of talent in the NFL will go down.
The same is true of the preemptive effect of parents not
allowing their kids to play football at the pee-wee and youth levels. Good athletes have options; okay, kids who
weigh 300 pounds at 13 probably are going to end up either as linemen in the NFL or Sumo wrestlers, but
basketball has done all right by Lebron James and his body hasn't taken the
pounding that the average NFL running back has endured by his age. Kids with talent will be diverted at an early
age, and again this will drive down the average talent level in the National
Football League.
But . . . so what? If
the average talent of offensive players drops, and the average talent level of
defensive players falls, will anyone notice?
As long as large men are crashing into each other, what’s the
difference? If the talent level on both
side of the ball declines, say, 5%, the games will have the same outcome.
Besides, have you seen the ratings for the Pro Bowl? The quality of play is execrable, an absolute
travesty to the football gods. The NFL
would love to cancel the whole thing, but the ratings are so high, and the ad
revenue so substantial, they have no choice but continue the sham of a mockery
of a shamockery. If football fans will watch the Pro Bowl, or a
Buccaneers/Falcons game on Thursday Night Football, they will watch if the
average player in the NFL is 10% less good.
If there is a sea change coming in the NFL, it will take
decades to have a measurable effect. As long as there is money, lots of money,
enough talents young men will exchange their future health for money. By the
time enough potential NFL players quit young, or decide not to try out for
their college football team, or have parents who keep them out of Pop Warner
football and they hear the siren song of becoming an MLS soccer player (who knows,
the median salary might be $100,000 by then), by the time that has a discernible
impact on the NFL, odds are we’ll have flying cars.
The NFL is unstoppable.
It survived Ray Rice, Tim Tebow and Ryan Leaf. But this is the first real chink in its armor
that may have legs. People will forget
the Ray Rice debacle when . . . the memory is already fading for most NFL fans.
But for the foreseeable future an increasing number of thoughtful athletes will
retire early or eschew football altogether.
The tipping point may be a decade or more away, but the slow trek
towards it has already started.
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