Emmy Awards 2015: Too Soon?

The 2014 Emmy Awards have been handed out (yay! The biggest winner was Sherlock with seven awards!). So that means it is time to start handicapping the 2015 awards. If Monday’s award show proved anything it is that, other than the Movie/Miniseries category, the Emmy awards are highly predictable.

The biggest question is going to be whether Mad Men can pull off a Breaking Bad-type victory lap.  My guess is no, unless the churn out some REALLY superior final episodes.  Breaking Bad has been the Emmy darling for the last couple of years, while Mad Men’s fortunes have waned. The 2014 season of Mad Men was a far cry from the dazzling first season, or any of the subsequent high-quality, but not quite as dazzling subsequent seasons, and it seems a stretch to think that after so long Matthew Weiner can pull some dramatic rabbits out of his hat. Frankly, I thought Mad Men’s best shot at an Emmy in 2014 was Robert Morse winning for guest actor for his marvelous final song and dance number, but perhaps the voters rebelled at his being classified as a “guest” after 74 episodes. That’s almost as silly as calling Orange is the New Black a “comedy” (yeah, OITNB and Frasier are practically twins).

Emmys are about momentum; Breaking Bad rode a hot hand into its final awards season, but Mad Men lost its mojo when it lost to Homeland and it is hard to get that momentum back. Lost won Best Drama in its first season and never got another nomination until its last (and then didn’t win). That’s the thing with the Emmys; you can be entitled to a nomination through inertia, but that doesn’t mean you have the slightest chance of winning.

I never will forget a couple of years ago when Hugh Laurie had some hopes of winning Best Actor in a Drama for House’s next to last season, but Bryan Cranston won for Breaking Bad. When the name was announced the camera was on Laurie, and the look in his eyes said, “I’m never going to win this, am I?” He wasn’t even nominated for House’s final season.

Will Jon Hamm get a final, “Thanks for the memories” Emmy in Mad Men’s last season? It’s possible, but I’m thinking he’ll contend with Laurie for the title “Best performer never to win for playing an iconic character.” Don Draper’s best days are far behind him; his rakish philandering on the gorgeous Betty Draper has been replaced by marital discord more akin to Blondie and Dagwood (if, you know, Blondie and Dagwood had a threesome with Blondie’s best friend; yikes, I just got the visual on that).

If anyone from Mad Men might have a shot at winning next year it could be Christina Hendricks. She was criminally overlook for a nomination her first two seasons, was nominated in 2014 despite not doing much, and the standing champ in the Supporting Actress category in Anna Gunn, who sailed off into the sunset with Breaking Bad. Good roles for actresses are rare, and there are few actresses who have done more with a role than Hendricks has with Joan Harris.

I’m a little leery at making other predictions, not because I can’t tell who’ll get nominated (pencil in nominations for Fargo, Good Wife, Veep, Orange is the New Black, etc.) but because it is unclear if there will be any changes because of the complaints about category abuses. One of the best lines at the Emmys was Seth Meyers’ saying there were comedies that made us laugh, and comedies that made us cry because they were dramas submitted in the comedy category. If the issue merits a mention in the opening monologue, maybe something will change.

Will True Detective be forced to compete in the miniseries category? Will Orange is the New Black and Shameless be forced into the drama category? Will Sherlock (will there be more episodes?) be forced to stop nominating single episodes as a movie? I don’t know.

All that aside, start filling out your office pool now.  Start with Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Jim Parsons for best actress and actor in a comedy, and work outward from there.