Oscar Predictions 2014

Predicting the Oscars have always been fascinating because they are a black box: we know what we think are the factors that go in to deciding who wins (is someone overdue, was the movie they were in a hit, do they have a reputation, are they impersonating a famous person . . . oh yeah, was their performance good?) but in the end we know only the winner’s name, but not the reason why any particular member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences voted for them. 

The prediction game has gotten less interesting in recent years, what with the advent of so many pre-Oscar awards and the emergence of social media.  A true upset is almost impossible under these circumstances.  The person who wins the Oscar will almost invariably have picked up a Guild award, Golden Globe, or some critics’ association award before the Oscars are awarded.

This year promised to be one of the most boring Oscar years on record, with most of the major awards locked in once the nominations were announced.  However, some last minute changes to the landscape have managed to add an air of uncertainty, although by and large there should be few surprises on March 2^nd.

Best Picture:  Yeah, I’m starting with the big one first, because it is the most interesting.  Most pre-Oscar awards have been going to 12 Years a Slave, with some going to Gravity.  However, I think there are a couple of things to consider before flipping a coin between those two films.  First, the Academy Best Picture winners that have dealt with race have either been light (Driving Miss Daisy) or positive (the abominable Crash, easily the worst Best Picture winner ever).  A dark (pardon the expression) movie like 12 Years might not be some members’ cup of tea.  Science Fiction films taking place in outer space have never been big vote getters when nominated for Best Picture (2001 wasn't even nominated, Star Wars).  The Academy uses a weighted average system of voting, meaning that it is possible for the Least Common Denominator, the film that annoys the fewest people, to win.  So I am predicting an upset and making my pick American Hustle.

What else does Hustle have going for it?  It picked up the Golden Globe for Best Comedy.  It is the second year in a row that director David O. Russell has directed his cast to nominations in all four acting categories, something that has only happened a total of 15 times and not since Reds in 1981 (plus he directed The Fighter which won two acting Oscars and was nominated for Best Picture).  It is an historical film set in the 1970’s, something else Oscar likes (The King’s Speech over The Social Network).  It is a “comedy,” which is a drawback, but it is not a jokefest Animal House kind of comedy but a satire on the era it is set in.  Russell has directed two recent Oscar winners, Christian Bale for The Fighter and Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. 

So my pick for Best Picture is American Hustle.  If I am right I am a genius; if not, hey I took a shot.

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity.  One point against 12 Years a Slave winning Best Picture is that Steve McQueen almost certainly won’t win Best Director (although being nominated is an accomplishment for an actor who has been dead since 1980).  Cuaron made an eye-popping special effects film that contains two great performances by Sandra Bullock and George Clooney.  He’s picked up just about every pre-Oscar award including the Golden Globe and BAFTA. 

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey.  When the nominations were first announced, I thought McConaughey’s lightweight filmography (Failure to Launch, Sahara, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past) might cost him votes among those who couldn’t take him seriously as an actor.  But he has added gravitas to his career with recent work in films like Mud and The Lincoln Lawyer, and he’s just about run the table of the pre-Oscar awards.  I’m pulling for Chiwetel Ejiofor just because he starred in Joss Whedon’s Serenity and I always pull for anyone associated with Joss.  But Oscar LOVES actors who make physical transformations for roles (Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote), so McConaughey’s got the nod.  My dark horse is Bruce Dern, a respected older actor who’s been nominated before, but older actors usually win in the Supporting category (Alan Arkin, James Coburn).

Best Actress: Cate Blanchette.  This was a stone lock until the flap over child abuse charges were leveled at Woody Allen.  It might cost Cate some votes, but she’s an Oscar winner for The Aviator and gave the stand-out performance in a weak year for Best Actress candidates.

Supporting Actor and Actress:  Jared Leto and Lupita Nyong’o.  They've almost run the table  (Nyong’o lost the Golden Globe to Jennifer Lawrence, but the Academy’s not going to give her an award two years in a row) and the run won’t stop in Oscar night.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave.  It will get votes from those who will vote for it for Best Picture, and from those who DON’T vote for it for Best Picture as a consolation prize.

Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle.  There is a strong correlation between winning best picture and winning best screenplay, since I am picking Hustle to win Best Picture I have to be consistent.  Also, the main rival is Spike Jonze’s Her, which is wonderful but again might put some Oscar voters off with the Sci-Fi aspects.  

Best Original song:  When a rap song wins Best Song, it's time to eliminate the category; when a song whose lyrics are in Hindi wins Best Song, it's time to eliminate the category; when a song called "Man or Muppet" wins Best Song, it is past time to eliminate the category.