NFL Playoffs: experience versus youth

It is unusual when fate creates a natural experiment to test an hypothesis that has been long debated, but that is exactly what has happened on this NFL Wild Card Weekend.  Question: how important is experience when playing in the playoffs?  Answer: we just may find out this weekend.

There are four wild card games this weekend.  In each one, the favored team is being led by a neophyte (or nearly) quarterback, while the underdog is led by a veteran QB.  There are other factors that will confound the experiment, such as home field advantage, relative strength of the rest of the teams, coaching competence and experience, and the like.  But in all of the wild card games, it boils down to age and experience versus youth and enthusiasm.

The first game had Indianapolis playing at the Texans’ home stadium, with grizzled veteran Andrew Luck playing against newbie QB Deshaun Watson who was completing his first full season.  According to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO system the Texans were 1 ½ point favorites, but Luck and the Colts pulled out the win.  One vote for experience.

But the Saturday late game was wild card Seattle versus the NFC East champs the Cowboys, matching Super Bowl winner Russel Wilson (who would have won two MVPs if his coach hadn’t made the most boneheaded play call in football history) against the Cowboy’s second year QB Dak Prescott.  Dallas was a one-point favorite and managed to cover the spread with a two-point win.  Chalk one up to youth.

As I write this the LA Charger/Baltimore Ravens game is underway, with the Ravens a 2 ½ point favorite (despite the Chargers having a better record despite being a wild card team).  The Ravens are led by rookie Lamar Jackson, who supplanted veteran (and Super Bowl winner) Joe Flacco, while the Chargers are led by Phi Rivers, who now holds the record for most playoff games played without a Super Bowl appearance.  Oh wait, the game is over, and Rivers and the Chargers won, so two votes for experience over youth.

The final game will be between the Bears’ second year QB Mitch Trubisky making his playoff debut against last year’s Super Bowl MVP, Nick Foals and the Eagles.  Even if the favored Bears win, at least two of the four games will result in upsets by underdog teams lead by a quarterback with playoff experience.  Four is not a large sample size, but it does provide food for thought.

I’ve always been skeptical when a talking head on ESPN says that he’s picking the team with the crafty quarterback over the younger team with the better defense, better offense, and better coach.  But maybe there is something to valuing experience when making post-season picks.  This Wild Card Weekend isn’t a perfect experiment, but it was a fortuitous happenstance that all four games came down to a favored playoff rookie versus a seasoned playoff veteran.